UPDATE: Inquiries about the iPad: This forecast is unchanged. I already use the Nexus (modified to run multi-touch) with Google Voice and do not have a 2 year contract. I already run Chrome OS on a Mini 10v and it's super fast, virus free, very focused and I get a lot of work done on it, and curiously enough I was also able to install OSX on it, and it performs better than my Generation 1 MacBook Air. It cost me a whopping $275. Straight from Dell. There's no way in hell you'll find me or anyone with half a brain walking into a two year contract on a device with no camera, no gps, a monthly payment to AT&T and no discount if you use an iPhone and an iPad. The platform isn't even accessible to developers. You must be approved by the app store. i.e. you can't write an app and sell it to friends. Apple's greatest threat right now is not Google. It's their own damn greed. Jeff Bezos moved MOUNTAINS to get the Sprint deal done on the Kindle setting the standard in the marketplace that the book seller will make money off the books and we get the bandwidth for free. Apple is now working to undo that. To make sure we get charged at every turn. The bandwidth for the downloaded book or movie, the cost of the download its self, PLUS THE COST OF THE BANDWIDTH USED TO SHOP THEIR STORE. Someone there has got to be kidding. Because they apparently just tried to sell us a Big iPhone, that's arguably a hundred times more expensive than the kindle. So to answer everyone's inquiry at once: No, the iPad does not change the forecast below. The $800 bucks I spent on my Nexus and Chrome OS Mini yielded an order of magnitude more speed, features and accessibility than the 899 you'd pay for an iPad. You'd have to be a zealous cultist to run out and buy a portable web browser without any signifigant differentiating feature other than the app store they yoke you with.

I should stop a moment thought to mention that I have great respect for Steve Jobs. He is one of my role models and as a man who never went to college, has made his way on his own mix of street smarts, vision, mettle and dumb luck: I like to feel we have some things in common. It's my hope that Steve Jobs is not stressed out by the reaction to the iPad. We all know he would like to bow out with a bang. In my eyes we have been so lucky, to have a man come and pave the way for the personal computer revolution. To take a personal interest in his work at the level that most men reserve only for god. We were lucky to have that same man push to make sure average people could make apps. Not just career developers. His "Interface Builder" on the NEXT computer did just that for a man named Sir Tim Berners-Lee who, while working on a NEXT Cube wrote a little program in interface builder called World Wide Web 1.0 which united every computer on the planet. Yes we're lucky to have had the same man come back to Apple and bring about a renaissance where the music industry relented to his will and agreed to sell us 1 song off an album if it's the only one we like. Then he turned to the carriers who would routinely cripple phones so that their users wouldn't have the ability to color outside the contract lines. Verizon routinely crippled motorola's phones before releasing them, giving Motorolla a bad name. It's because of the iPhone's success that Verizon was happy to let Motorola do anything it wanted with the Droid. We all should look at Steve Jobs and see the benefit to the planet when we stand up for what we believe in and are relentless and unmoved by whatever tries to shake us. So I hope the man at the top is not taking this iPad stuff too seriously. It was hard to watch him sit so quietly, presenting the iPad in a subdued tone of voice. I have profound respect for Steve Jobs, and much of my voice I studied from his. It's not a voice that just stays quiet when someone is totally out of line, so I have to call it like I see it. Because I wouldn't say it if I didn't know I was right: "Don't be Evil" is not "BullS#it" as Steve called it the other night. Most people do not recognize that Google is the single most unifying thing ever to happen to human kind. Uniting all of our cultures and all of our languages in the simple practice of asking about what we are curious of and expecting to be able to find something out. This is the awakening of human kind. I've met more people in more countries over the last 6 months than in all the time before in my entire life and it is all thanks to Twitter and Google.

Apple wouldn't be having the trouble it is if it would have opened the platform and just made a "use at your own risk" "b-side" app store. Instead of driving good developers away for bad aps. My friends and I know what it's like to have a Halloween themed app not approved until November. You don't end up feeling seen.


In the next three years we're going to have to learn to control the climate of the planet, we're going to have to catalog all the species and model the relationships of each living thing on the planet with all of the other living things. We have to learn to stabilize our ecosystem and steer the planet. We're going to do that all a hell of a lot faster if our devices are as powerful as they can be, as accessible as they can be and as capable as we can make them. Below is my forecast for 2010 which, even after the iPad, is sound. It's some of the best research I've produced. I hope you all enjoy it.

Sid

Google is big, bigger than anyone thought possible. Once we think it's as big as it could possibly get, it pulls something, and gets bigger. This makes projecting the number of Android and ChromeOS devices we will see next year a tricky task. Try and you run into a few key data points have me preparing for a flood of Google powered hardware.

The Processor Surplus

Image by isriya via Flickr

The projections on numbers of devices that are based upon the output of chip manufacturers and sales history do not take into account the substantial increase in production that will come from the new patent cross license between AMD and Intel. Nor do they note any expected drop in cost. It can be assumed that an increase in availability will drive down the cost of processors.

With current netbook pricing commonly at $300-400 US. The drop in processor cost, the free operating system and carrier subsidization (netbook sales from Verizon, Att, Sprint and Tmobile) you can expect to see netbooks appear next year that are near-free with 2 year contract.

The Blue Screen of Life

Google estimates the Chrome OS will be ready for consumer use in 10 months. The open source project Chromium OS was released into the wild last month, and all research indicates ChromeOS is competitive in the netbook market today. Largely thanks to Dell's linux team, which released a stable version for it's Mini 10v netbook the day after the first videos surfaced of one running ChromeOS. In the video the owner mentioned that he couldn't get the wireless working. Dell responded immediately. Most people have trouble getting them to answer the phone.

Image by Travelin' Librarian via Flickr

We can assume with some certainty, that the world in 10 months or less is full of ChromeOS login screens. Screens that just need your Google ID to show you everything in your online world. The back seats of taxicabs, storefronts, libraries, schools, public areas, hallway walls and in civic institutions.

The Android Context

2009 was the year of Android. From a barely functional 1.0 release and G1 launch that many argue was premature, Android matured by the end of the year to 2.0 and the Droid. A true challenger to the iPhone experience. We saw Eric Schmidt leave the board of Apple, and with that, the age of intimate cooperation between Apple and Google has drawn to a close. Next year they battle in the market head on. HTC has produced a phone Google will sell direct to consumer. Google calls it the "Nexus". A device that is with you all the time. Always connected and just as handy at consuming new information as it is at finding and displaying information. Though Android is a context for computing that will become clearer as it's intended environment unfolds.

Next year, low cost, low powered terminals will start showing up everywhere. These "drones" will erode the interface metaphors that currently rule the day. Terms like "Television", "Phone", "Web Page" and "iPod" will loose relevance and meaning in the rise of intelligent interactive environments. Initiatives like TVEverywhere from Time Warner and the purchase of NBC by Comcast, a long time Time Warner ally, will flood the pipes with content. Available easily if you link your Comcast login ID with your Google ID.

The Chrome Transition

Like the PC Clone boom of the early 90s, it will happen big and fast. Surprisingly, research reveals a transition which appears not to lead to a planet where everything is Google in an Orwellian world. The background of the transition appears to care for the planet, support diversity and thriving ecosystems; biological, social, educational and commercial. While not a utopian world, it is vastly different than the one we've known, computer science itself is undergoing a renaissance. These panels and devices will invite you to help them. To make apps, extensions and to participate in the crafting of your experience of life.

This transition will marginalize Microsoft more than anyone could have imagined. Pushing them back to their only stronghold: the video game console market and their XBox. The transition has unforeseeable effect on Apple due to their secrecy. Apple will most likely unveil a new platform that surprises us all. As all of these systems penetrate further into physical world, the term "Augmented Reality" or AR will become as common a metaphor as "Desktop", and the more interesting interfaces emerging will be projection based.

The Critical Message For Google in 2010: Space

Many in the industry have uttered the terrible worlds "Next Microsoft" when speaking of the road ahead of Google's latest successes. This brings to mind anti-trust, crappy software that just plain doesn't work and a feeling of stagnation in computer science. There is no evidence that the ills of market dominance are present at Google. It seems they are spared Microsoft's fate by a culture which dreams of the future. Though Virgle, the Virgin/Google mission to colonize Mars was an april Fools Day Joke, the Android Sensor Manager's Planetary Profiles and the inclusion of DTS in Android are not, and Google is regularly visited by the emerging spaceship set.

Sir Richard Branson, Google's partner in their "Virgle" project which seeks to colonize Mars, has unveiled his second space ship. The VSS Enterprise which will begin operation next year.

Jeff Bezos, early investor in Google and CEO of Amazon.com began testing his "Blue Origin" sub-orbital passenger craft last year.

It's also not uncommon to find NASA representatives at the "GooglePlex", Google's Mountain View Campus, presenting to the local development community on its 22 recently announced open source projects. After all, the NASA Ames Research Center is just a few exits away off 101. The most recent accomplishments of the local NASA Center have been the discovery of water on our Moon and the first algae based bio-reactor that turns waste material into energy.

Often, at local developer events, the Star Trek references are frequent and real. For example, the Android phone in my pocket can measure the magnetic fields of the equipment around me and has Delay Tolerant Networking protocols designed by Google for interplanetary communication. This is built in to my phone. My phone is a hop a skip and a jump from a Tricorder.

What The Consumer Will Decide

It's been a long honored saying in Silicon Valley, that people don't accept a change until it's already happened. The consumer always has choice yet they seem to choose histories rather than futures. Steve Jobs' legendary observation: "The consumer doesn't know what they are going to want next".

From what I can observe, the consumer will either dig in their heels, afraid of Google's growing power or they will engage a future where we solve the problems facing our planet and begin to colonize others without taking much note of the significance.

This next decade looks like an amazing time for the world. The developments resulting from the availability of information and free education will surprise us all, yet it begins with navigating the transition. The one already underway and soon to reach a fever pitch that will touch every market on the planet. Signaling the end of personal computing as we know it.

2010 will bring a storm of drones.

--

• Apple F3Q09 (Qtr End 6/27/09) Earnings Call Transcript -- Seeking Alpha

  Type	Web Page
  URL	http://seekingalpha.com/article/150291-apple-f3q09-qtr-end-6-27-09-earnings-call-transcript? page=-1
  Accessed	Fri Dec 11 14:25:43 2009
  Date Added	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009
  Modified	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009

  Notes:

  • Figure: 1.5 billion apps downloaded

• Apple Plots Reboot of iTunes for Web - WSJ.com

  Type	Web Page
  URL	http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126040631831584643.html? mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_tech
  Accessed	Fri Dec 11 14:13:30 2009
  Date Added	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009
  Modified	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009

  Notes:

  • Strategy: Apple Untethering the iPhone, The workstation and the "other devices" from the desktop metaphor

• Bistream Releases Bolt 1.6 Mobile Web Browser

  Type	Web Page
  URL	http://www.rimarkable.com/bistream-releases-bolt-1-6-mobile-web-browser
  Accessed	Fri Dec 11 14:07:21 2009
  Date Added	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009
  Modified	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009

  Notes:

  • Figure: Bolt brings "Web 2.0" and "Cloud" to 3 Billion handsets already in the market

• Chrome OS: Internet failing at PC > PC failing at Internet

  Type	Web Page
  URL	http://arstechnica.com/open-source/news/2009/11/chromeos-announcement.ars
  Accessed	Fri Dec 11 14:53:43 2009
  Date Added	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009
  Modified	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009

  Notes:

  • ontogeny recapitulates phylogeny

• Clustering billions of data points using GPUs

  Type	Web Page
  URL	http://portal.acm.org/citation.cfm? id=1531666.1531668
  Accessed	Fri Dec 11 14:11:18 2009
  Date Added	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009
  Modified	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009

  Notes:

  • Edge Technologies: There are methods for managing billions of confurrent connections

• Developers Anticipate Apple Tablet -- InformationWeek

  Type	Web Page
  URL	http://www.informationweek.com/news/personal_tech/iphone/showArticle.jhtml? articleID=222001634&subSection=News
  Accessed	Fri Dec 11 14:51:44 2009
  Date Added	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009
  Modified	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009

  Notes:

  • Certainly everything will be different from the desktop metaphor, but I think the groundwork for a multi-touch tablet has been well laid by the iPhone.

• HomeBrew Robotics Club

  Type	Web Page
  URL	http://www.hbrobotics.org/
  Accessed	Fri Dec 11 14:49:29 2009
  Date Added	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009
  Modified	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009

  Notes:

  • Figure: 400+ members with diverse backgrounds from all age groups

• iPhone Dev Center: Interface Builder User Guide: Interface Layout

  Type	Web Page
  URL	http://developer.apple.com/iphone/library/documentation/DeveloperTools/Conceptual/IB_UserGuide/Layout/Layout.html
  Accessed	Fri Dec 11 14:22:06 2009
  Date Added	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009
  Modified	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009

  Notes:

  • Evidence of new hardware features: Apple iPhone OS Support for Multiple Screen Sizes: "To compensate for variances in the user‚Äôs screen size, you can use the provided window anchors to assign a fixed distance to the space between the window and the corresponding edge of the screen."

• Mobile Phones: Smartphone Devices Set to Surpass One Billion by 2013 | Foneshop.com Blog

  Type	Web Page
  URL	http://www.foneshop.com/blog/2009/12/mobile-phones-smartphone-devices-set-to-surpass-one-billion-by-2013/
  Accessed	Fri Dec 11 14:09:22 2009
  Date Added	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009
  Modified	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009

  Notes:

  • Forecast: The IDC‚Äôs Worldwide Digital Marketplace Model and Forecast expects that mobile devices with Internet connectivity will break the one billion barrier by 2013.

• mediacastermagazine.com - Mediacaster - 12/11/2009

  Type	Web Page
  URL	http://www.mediacastermagazine.com/issues/ISArticle.asp? aid=1000349490
  Accessed	Fri Dec 11 14:55:13 2009
  Date Added	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009
  Modified	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009

  Notes:

  • the industry is ‚Äòslicing the salami as thin as possible‚Äô he said as it tries to wring the last penny from its multiple offerings, while continuing to control access to content in new ways

• NASA Ames Open Source Software | Home

  Type	Web Page
  URL	http://opensource.arc.nasa.gov/
  Accessed	Fri Dec 11 14:44:35 2009
  Date Added	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009
  Modified	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009

  Notes:

  • To accelerate software development via community contributions, To maximize the awareness and impact of NASA research...

  • Fact: NASA released 22 internal projects to the public as open source.

• Samsung, Nokia, Apple Handsets Do Well Despite Recession - News - eWeekEurope.co.uk

  Type	Web Page
  URL	http://www.eweekeurope.co.uk/news/samsung--nokia--apple-handsets-do-well-despite-recession-127
  Accessed	Fri Dec 11 14:05:27 2009
  Date Added	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009
  Modified	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009

  Notes:

  • Background: In January of this year, eweek reported that 1.21 billion handsets shipped in 2008

    "The net result? The year closed with 1.21 billion handsets shipped for an annual growth of 5.4 percent compared with 16 percent growth from 2007, Jake Saunders, Asia-Pacific vice president of ABI Research, said in a statement."

• The webkit-dev November 2009 Archive by thread

  Type	Web Page
  URL	https://lists.webkit.org/pipermail/webkit-dev/2009-November/thread.html#10455
  Accessed	Fri Dec 11 14:19:14 2009
  Date Added	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009
  Modified	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009

  Notes:

  • Conversation: Preparing For A Bot Filled Future

• We are the big data problem

  Type	Web Page
  URL	http://www.sdtimes.com/blog/post/2009/11/19/We-are-the-big-data-problem.aspx
  Accessed	Fri Dec 11 14:52:54 2009
  Date Added	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009
  Modified	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009

  Notes:

  • Companies are, after all, organic hive minds with mechanical arms. Large distributed systems, as it were.

• What Intel just bought for $1.25 billion: Less risk | Deep Tech - CNET News

  Type	Web Page
  URL	http://news.cnet.com/8301-30685_3-10396798-264.html? tag=mncol;title
  Accessed	Fri Dec 11 14:12:08 2009
  Date Added	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009
  Modified	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009

  Notes:

  • AMD does indeed come away with some serious perks--not just the cash, but also a new patent cross-license agreement that removes Intel's objections to AMD spinning off its chip-manufacturing business, enables multiple manufacturers to build AMD's chips, and eliminates the earlier patent agreement's payments to Intel. And it has Intel's agreement not to violate a list of restraints on its business practices.

• Why Apple's iTouch Tablet Will Become Its Flagship Product -- Seeking Alpha

  Type	Web Page
  URL	http://seekingalpha.com/article/151137-why-apple-s-itouch-tablet-will-become-its-flagship-product
  Accessed	Fri Dec 11 14:22:55 2009
  Date Added	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009
  Modified	Fri Dec 11 15:47:10 2009

  Notes:

  • Analyst: Apple will struggle to produce enough of these to meet the demand